Iraq and the midterm election results
OK, so what does this mean relative to Iraq?
I have avoided reading other blogs so that I could assess this myself. If I sound like others you have read, it's a function of like minds.
first, what will Bush do? I believe he will offer the Democrats congratulations and make public statements that sound like "We have to work with these people".
Will he change direction? No, I honestly doubt he will. He will continue to pound away at the same prinicples:
(1) the Radical Muslims are a threat that we must take seriously.(2) we will use diplomacy when it is the best choice.(3) we will fight if we must.(4) The ultimate solution to the problem is freedom and democracy in the Muslim dominated regions.
I don't expect much deviation from that at all.
What will the democrats do? The Democrats will step on their dicks. One quick read of Bayam's comment and this becomes obvious. They have rushed in like fools at every "outrage" and been hammered each time. If they launch "investigations" it will cost them politically. Why?(1) Ned Lamont Lost, and big. That shows that the fringe left is NOT who put the Democrats over the top. The Democrat party operatives understand this. They have a tenuous grip on the votes of the disaffected middle. Making a hard left turn now will damage that.(2) The Republicans will fight back hard. By casting the Democrats raving mania as an obstacle to progress on the people's business they will place the Democrats in a tough situation. If they pursue this now, it will used as a tool against them in 08.(3) The President has nothing to hide and investigations will prove that. Again, this is all just the return of the son of the Downing Street Minutes. Just look at Bayam's own words: they are going to investigate the relationship between the Admin and the generals. Huh? One possible Republican response: "Once again the Democrat party is demonstrating that it is not serious. by damaging the morale of our fighting forces they are making the US vulnerable."(4) John Conyers, the likely point man, will face a withering political barrage. Chalk it up to "sauce for the goose". I have questions concerning the nature of Conyers congressional district myself. How difficult will it be to raise allegations concerning his true loyalties?(5) The underlying theme for the Democrats is the White House in 08. That is the lens through which every decision made by the Democrats will be viewed.
And of course, what will the terrorists do? These guys have, as we've heard a million times, never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Hamas is already declaring and end to the "truce" a truce they violated daily btw. hezbullah is rearming and attempting to bring down the elected government in Lebannon. the violence in B-dad is perhaps systemic and will consume everyone who tries to control it until the bad guys do the jacobin thing and cart their own leaders to the guillotine.
When this happens, the Democrats will face a huge political crisis. If Lebannon goes back to war, UNIFIL will be a notable failure. This failure will be attached quite clearly to the Democrats preffered policy option: international co operation.
When war between Israel and hamas is rekindled the Democrats, who are now in something of a leadership position will HAVE to take a position. Again, their preferred option of international co operation will be viewed as unworkable.
The Iranians are the wild card here. But this situation is a muslim free for all. If enough of these splinter groups create enough of an onslaught against our civilization, the Democrats are in trouble unless they go to war again. As it is, the quotes of the various muslim thug leaders urging Americans to vote Democrat will figure prominently in Republican advertising.
Oh, one other thing. Let's assume for a moment that the MSM is in fact agenda driven. Is it possible that they have achieved their short term goal? If so, would they not back off the negative coverage of the Iraq war to gain some breathing space for their fledgling majority in the house? It's possible and I wouldn't be surprised at all.
since my opinion is that most of the Iraq is in crisis crap is about us and not the Iraqis, the effort in Iraq loses some of its attraction as a political tool for the MSM.
I have avoided reading other blogs so that I could assess this myself. If I sound like others you have read, it's a function of like minds.
first, what will Bush do? I believe he will offer the Democrats congratulations and make public statements that sound like "We have to work with these people".
Will he change direction? No, I honestly doubt he will. He will continue to pound away at the same prinicples:
(1) the Radical Muslims are a threat that we must take seriously.(2) we will use diplomacy when it is the best choice.(3) we will fight if we must.(4) The ultimate solution to the problem is freedom and democracy in the Muslim dominated regions.
I don't expect much deviation from that at all.
What will the democrats do? The Democrats will step on their dicks. One quick read of Bayam's comment and this becomes obvious. They have rushed in like fools at every "outrage" and been hammered each time. If they launch "investigations" it will cost them politically. Why?(1) Ned Lamont Lost, and big. That shows that the fringe left is NOT who put the Democrats over the top. The Democrat party operatives understand this. They have a tenuous grip on the votes of the disaffected middle. Making a hard left turn now will damage that.(2) The Republicans will fight back hard. By casting the Democrats raving mania as an obstacle to progress on the people's business they will place the Democrats in a tough situation. If they pursue this now, it will used as a tool against them in 08.(3) The President has nothing to hide and investigations will prove that. Again, this is all just the return of the son of the Downing Street Minutes. Just look at Bayam's own words: they are going to investigate the relationship between the Admin and the generals. Huh? One possible Republican response: "Once again the Democrat party is demonstrating that it is not serious. by damaging the morale of our fighting forces they are making the US vulnerable."(4) John Conyers, the likely point man, will face a withering political barrage. Chalk it up to "sauce for the goose". I have questions concerning the nature of Conyers congressional district myself. How difficult will it be to raise allegations concerning his true loyalties?(5) The underlying theme for the Democrats is the White House in 08. That is the lens through which every decision made by the Democrats will be viewed.
And of course, what will the terrorists do? These guys have, as we've heard a million times, never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Hamas is already declaring and end to the "truce" a truce they violated daily btw. hezbullah is rearming and attempting to bring down the elected government in Lebannon. the violence in B-dad is perhaps systemic and will consume everyone who tries to control it until the bad guys do the jacobin thing and cart their own leaders to the guillotine.
When this happens, the Democrats will face a huge political crisis. If Lebannon goes back to war, UNIFIL will be a notable failure. This failure will be attached quite clearly to the Democrats preffered policy option: international co operation.
When war between Israel and hamas is rekindled the Democrats, who are now in something of a leadership position will HAVE to take a position. Again, their preferred option of international co operation will be viewed as unworkable.
The Iranians are the wild card here. But this situation is a muslim free for all. If enough of these splinter groups create enough of an onslaught against our civilization, the Democrats are in trouble unless they go to war again. As it is, the quotes of the various muslim thug leaders urging Americans to vote Democrat will figure prominently in Republican advertising.
Oh, one other thing. Let's assume for a moment that the MSM is in fact agenda driven. Is it possible that they have achieved their short term goal? If so, would they not back off the negative coverage of the Iraq war to gain some breathing space for their fledgling majority in the house? It's possible and I wouldn't be surprised at all.
since my opinion is that most of the Iraq is in crisis crap is about us and not the Iraqis, the effort in Iraq loses some of its attraction as a political tool for the MSM.
posted by skipsailing | 12:12 PM
4 Comments:
Well, other than grappling with a lot of names of American political figures who I know nothing about, I think your analysis is pretty astute.
I've was a bit depressed by this turn of events down your way for a day or two, but I'm not feeling a sense of defeat, by any means. I've always felt this "war" was going to be like the Cold War. There will be hot wars and luke warm wars over a period of many years.
Iraq is not yet lost. There are other fronts as well, which if fought soon, will give Iraq a better chance. Islamists, being the stupid beasts they are, just keep proving to the world over and over that they are a menace that must be dealt with.
Eventually, most folks in the West will see the stark choice they must make and have thus far managed to avoid. The Asholes and Fahdis of the world will have to be eliminated.
I was very disappointed in Bush's performance in his second term. I don't hold out much hope of him using his last two years to get tough, but I could be wrong.
I like this analysis. Thanks.
Louise what you see Bush doing is the same thing that Ahmedinejad is doing - stalling for time. If we can get this over the political hump (or the point that the Dems realize that the public doesn't want 'cut & run') then we can get back to prodding the Iraqi gov't to take over the job that it has to do.
Mike, I've entertained that "stalling for time" theory myself. I think that a lot more of the world's democracies will be on side in time, simply because the Islamists and the loonie leftists are so adept at showing us what they are really all about. They can't keep their heads in sand forever, if they want to survive.
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